While the effects of global warming are becoming an increasingly devastating conflict multiplier, international climate diplomacy is facing complex challenges in the midst of a tense global political situation. After the UN climate conferences since Paris achieved mediocre successes, this year's COP28 faces high expectations. TraCe members Prof. Dr Markus Lederer and Verena Lasso Mena from Technical University of Darmstadt are attending this year's Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in order to follow negotiations and events on the ground at the 28th World Climate Conference in Dubai.
In 2023, the COP will focus on three core topics in particular: (i) the global stocktake of ambitions to date, (ii) the global phase-out of fossil fuels and a transition to renewable energies and (iii) the financing, establishment and implementation of the climate damage fund agreed in Sharm el Sheikh. However, hosting the climate conference in the United Arab Emirates under the presidency of the head of a state-owned oil company caused skepticism in the run-up to the event. The quadrupling of the number of lobbyists taking part compared to the previous year also prompted outrage, as it is feared that they could undermine progress and hold up negotiations in favor of fossil fuels. Non-governmental organizations and climate protection activists are therefore right to warn against sham solutions. It remains to be seen to what extent the final negotiating document will actually exert pressure on the states, which will be reflected in new national voluntary commitments. Both fossil fuel emissions as a catalyst for the climate crisis and the expansion of renewable energies urgently require careful political management and social safeguards in view of the inherent security threats and risks of political violence in the form of resource conflicts, geopolitical tensions and local transition conflicts.