Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, the violence in the Middle East, the war in Sudan, and the recent U.S. military intervention in Venezuela exemplify a broader development: the blurring of the boundaries between war and peace, interstate and civil war, and state and non-state actors. New weapons systems, digital propaganda, and hybrid threat scenarios further intensify these dynamics. For German policymakers, this raises urgent questions: How can such unbounded conflict situations be addressed, and what room for maneuver do political decision-makers have?
These questions were at the heart of a Parliamentary Evening held in Berlin on February 24, 2026, jointly organized by TraCe and the Deutsche Stiftung Friedensforschung (DSF). Hosted at the Parliamentary Society, members of the German Bundestag, parliamentary office staff, and federal ministry representatives engaged in discussion with TraCe researchers. After Jonas Wolff’s introduction, Monika Wingender, Thea Riebe, and Thilo Marauhn discussed various aspects of the changing nature of warfare. Tobias Pietz, a member of the DSF Executive Board and the lead of the “Climate Security & EU” program at the Zentrum für Internationale Friedenseinsätze (ZIF), moderated the evening.
Although TraCe examines a broad spectrum of political violence, the theme of war has accompanied the research center since its start. The Kick-Off event in late 2022, “A New Old War? The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the Transformation of Political Violence,” focused on the Russian full-scale invasion, which marked its fourth anniversary on the day of the event. In his opening remarks, patron Nils Schmid, Parliamentary State Secretary at the Federal Ministry of Defense, emphasized the importance of TraCe’s scholarly analysis in times of growing security uncertainty. Jonas Wolff then gave a brief introduction to TraCe’s work, underlining key research findings: a marked increase in armed conflicts, an intensifying mediatization of violence, and a qualitative transformation of warfare.
In their brief remarks, Monika Wingender, Thea Riebe, and Thilo Marauhn further elaborated on this analysis and its implications for policy. Monika Wingender focused on discourse, propaganda, and memory politics in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Russian propaganda serves to legitimize military action and secure interpretative dominance. The ideology of the “Russian World” intertwines language policy with geopolitical claims to power. Conversely, Ukraine is pursuing a state-sponsored policy of de-Russification, seeking to remove Russian elements from the public sphere, including those that are part of a historically embedded cultural heritage. She argued that both sides are caught in a spiral of ideology and counter-ideology. Against the backdrop of digital amplification and transnational reach, Wingender called for a more systematic analysis of propaganda strategies in Germany and for the early consideration of postwar reconciliation processes.
Thea Riebe examined the technological transformation of contemporary warfare. Automated systems and artificial intelligence have significantly accelerated military decision-making processes. Declining costs are enabling non-state actors to access such technologies. At the same time, however, there is considerable divergence in international understandings of what constitutes “meaningful human control.” Riebe referred to existing NATO guidelines and European regulatory approaches, such as the AI Act. However, she stressed that Germany must actively participate in international standard-setting processes. She argued that reliable and verifiable criteria for human control are essential.
Thilo Marauhn addressed the international legal dimension in his remarks. He described the erosion of clear terminology, the growing absence of justifications for the use of force, temporal preemption of violence, and increasing disregard for prohibitions as developments endangering the stability of the international order. As an inter-state legal system, international law is constantly evolving, and its effectiveness largely depends on how states shape and apply it. However, this also means that inaction and silence are not options, as they can lead to the irreversible erosion of international legal norms. Therefore, German policymakers must take action by sending clear messages and advocating consistently for existing norms through various diplomatic channels.
The subsequent discussion explored dual-use challenges in outer space, Germany’s room for maneuver between international law and power politics, and the role of alliances – including partnerships with countries in the Global South. After more than an hour of intensive debate, the exchange continued informally over a buffet and drinks. Sabine Mannitz and Regine Schwab contributed their expertise to the ongoing conversations and follow-up discussions.